2016: What the Numbers Reveal
One of the nation’s most highly respected pollsters, Mark Mellman, joined TCG for a sold-out briefing on the 2016 race to the White House.
Mellman discussed the poll numbers and what they tell us about the already hotly contested Democratic and Republican primary races. He also shared his views on the relative strength of the candidates, the key factors influencing the outcomes for the nomination, and why the general election will probably be very, very close, despite a Democratic advantage in the electoral college.
Notwithstanding the Bernie Sanders “surge” in New Hampshire and speculation about Joe Biden jumping in, Mellman suggests Hillary still has the edge for the Democratic nomination.
The crowded Republican field is harder to gauge. One thing is clear. Poll numbers show the mood among grass roots GOPers is sour and angry – even towards members of their own party. GOP voters want new approaches, not experience. “Anything can happen” may be the most the crystal ball forecasts at this point as non-establishment candidates Trump and Carson enjoy high poll numbers. However, the substantial campaign war chest that Jeb Bush has amassed may give him a unique ability to stay in the race even as his numbers lag in these early days.
There were many more insights by Mellman during this thought-provoking event. One theme came through that is especially pertinent to our efforts at TCG – like it or not, polarization among voters and even within parties is the filter through which the electorate will be casting their votes. Watch the video on TCG’s website. Many thanks to our partners, Peter Maroney, Paul Beirne and Alliance Bernstein for making this event possible. And Happy 81st Birthday to founder Paul Bernstein.